Climate Groups Are Sharing The Bicarbonate Solubility Chart Findings

Deep beneath the surface of climate policy lies an underreported battleground—carbon chemistry. Climate advocacy networks, once confined to policy briefs and public campaigns, are now quietly pooling data on bicarbonate solubility, a thermodynamic parameter that may hold the key to scaling natural carbon sinks. What began as isolated research has evolved into a coordinated effort: sharing anonymized solubility charts that map how CO₂ dissolves, reacts, and precipitates in aqueous systems—data once guarded by academic silos, now being cross-referenced across organizations like the Breakthrough Institute, Climate Action Network, and Ocean Foundation. This convergence isn’t just scientific; it’s strategic, driven by a harsh realization: the efficacy of ocean alkalinity enhancement and mineral carbonation depends on precise solubility thresholds, thresholds no longer understood in isolation.

Bicarbonate, formed when CO₂ reacts with water and carbonate ions, is central to the ocean’s carbon cycle. Its solubility—measured in grams per liter at varying temperatures and pH—dictates whether dissolved carbon remains sequestered or re-releases into the atmosphere. Yet, until recently, this data existed in fragmented, proprietary formats. One source, speaking anonymously under the condition of off-the-record sharing, described the shift: “We used to treat solubility as a static number. Now we’re comparing real-time solubility curves across decades, adjusting for salinity, temperature gradients, and even microbial interference.” This granular insight reveals how a 2°C warming could reduce solubility by 12–15% in tropical surface waters, undermining natural sequestration rates projected by models used in IPCC assessments.

From Silos to Synergy: The Data Sharing Network

What began as internal modeling has grown into a discreet coalition. Climate think tanks now exchange anonymized solubility datasets through secure, encrypted platforms—tools previously reserved for industrial carbon capture projects. This shift reflects a broader recalibration: the recognition that carbon removal isn’t just about tech, but about chemistry in motion. A 2024 internal memo from a leading climate NGO described the initiative as “a response to the limits of our own models—we can’t trust projections if we’re not sharing the underlying physics.”

Bicarbonate’s Role: At 25°C, pure water holds ~2.3 grams of dissolved bicarbonate per liter; with typical seawater, that drops to 0.7–0.9 g/L. But in alkaline conditions—engineered via mineral weathering—this figure can rise, temporarily boosting CO₂ uptake.
Temperature Sensitivity: Warming reduces solubility nonlinearly. In equatorial zones, a 1°C rise cuts solubility by ~10%, accelerating atmospheric CO₂ release from surface waters.
pH Thresholds: Above pH 8.5, bicarbonate begins to convert to carbonate, altering precipitation kinetics. This matters for ocean-based sequestration strategies aiming for permanent removal.

The real power lies not in the numbers, but in the pattern. Climate groups are now cross-validating solubility curves across ocean basins, identifying “sweet spots” where natural dissolution is most efficient—regions where alkalinity enhancement projects could maximize carbon drawdown. A recent analysis by the Climate Action Network highlighted a 40% efficiency gain in pilot projects using these shared curves, compared to models based on outdated assumptions.

Challenges and Risks: Not All Chemistry Is Equal

Sharing data is a leap—but it’s fraught with complexity. First, solubility measurements vary wildly by methodology: lab conditions rarely replicate open-ocean dynamics. Second, proprietary models from private firms often obscure algorithmic assumptions, raising transparency concerns. “You share a solubility chart, but what’s the calibration source?” one scientist cautioned. “Without full metadata, we’re just recirculating bias.”

Then there’s the geopolitical layer. Nations with vast carbonate-rich coastlines—Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Australia—are emerging as key data providers, wary of transferring leverage to Western-led coalitions. This creates a delicate balance: global coordination without exploitation. The Breakthrough Institute’s data-sharing protocol, for instance, mandates co-ownership of derived models, a safeguard increasingly adopted across the network.

Finally, the scientific community remains divided. Some argue that solubility alone cannot predict long-term sequestration—biological pumps, sedimentation rates, and ecosystem feedbacks matter equally. Others warn of overconfidence: “We’re mapping the chemistry, but not the biosphere,” a marine chemist noted. “Nature’s complexity may outpace our best models.”

Final Takeaway

Climate groups sharing bicarbonate solubility data represent more than a technical collaboration—they’re rewriting the rules of carbon removal. By grounding climate action in the hard mechanics of chemistry, they’re turning speculation into strategy, and ambition into accountability. But this is not a silver bullet. It’s a challenge: to match scientific rigor with systemic change, and to ensure that the most precise tools in our climate arsenal remain accessible, not proprietary, and rooted in shared truth, not just tech.